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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.