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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.