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The gravest potential impacts of the global heating for the UK have been outlined by researchers, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in average temperatures to a 2-metre increase in ocean levels. A separate possibility foresees a decline of 6C in temperature following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These consequences, certain ones are associated with irreversible climate shifts, are seen as low probability but plausible. The researchers said that these models addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had rendered the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," commented the professor who led the analysis. "The nation has been making preparations lacking the frameworks to plan for worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied planners what they need to plan for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A further series of dire projections sets out the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The probability of the extreme scenarios occurring could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to tackle climate change and how the planet's climate will behave. This analysis was described as similar to national security risk assessments or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if climate action fails or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin dying unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heat domes and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and losing stability due to climate change. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would be severely challenged and water resources would be drastically changed," noted the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from burning coal scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of major projects, including expanded cities, energy plants and water management networks. Awareness of these environmental threats could also accelerate the transition to cut carbon pollution.

The analysis formulated the severe projections using a combination of observed and historical experience, computer simulations and climate physics. These outcomes do not take into account broader worldwide issues such as the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The project was initiated as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Previous assessments have stated that not enough attention was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the dangers for 4C. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement said: "Global warming is at the core of the country's focus, both building resilience and becoming a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is resilient for the consequences."