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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.